Yes, we have recessions and bear markets along the way but, in the grand scheme of things, the stock market is making a series of higher highs and lows. Over the next few weeks, the initial excitement fades, and the stock price gradually fall back to around $52, closer to its historical mean. Over the past 200 days, the stock of Company XYZ has had an average closing price of 50. Percentage returns and prices aren’t the only measures considered in mean reverting; interest rates or even the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of a company can be subject to this phenomenon.

The strategy also requires active management and can be psychologically challenging, as it often involves going against the prevailing market sentiment. These include the Mean Reversion Indicator (MRI), which can help traders identify the point at which an asset’s price has deviated significantly from its historical mean price. Now, calculating the mean involves taking an average of the asset’s historical prices over a specific period. Indicators like the RSI and stochastic oscillator are commonly used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in currency pairs, signaling potential mean reversion.

The black trendlines​ mark common areas where the price reverted back toward the mean. There are notable exceptions where there were large price moves, and these also tended to reverse near similar levels on the PPO. An intraday mean reversion strategy works best when a strong trend is present, combined with a moving average where the price tends to get near it and then moves in the trending direction. Trading in the same direction as a strong trend is often referred to as a momentum trading​​; so read more information about this type of strategy.

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. For example, to carry out a pairs trade, select one of the instruments from the pair that you are interested in. Next, in the Product Library, search for the other asset in the pair that you want to trade.

Traders and investors use mean reversion for timing of their respective trading and investment strategies. An example of mean reversion can be seen when a stock’s price deviates significantly from its historical average or moving average. If the price moves far above this average, the mean reversion theory suggests it will likely move back towards the average in the future. Another substantial risk emanates from relying on historical mean prices, which may lose relevance due to evolving market conditions, leaving traders to contend with outdated benchmarks.

In essence, it suggests that severe deviations from the mean are not sustainable long-term, and prices are apt to return to their average values eventually. It can be also applied to volatility​​, earnings, earnings growth rates and technical indicator​ levels. Read on to discover how to calculate the mean reversion formula and how to apply mean reversion strategies when trading within the financial markets. Mean reversion is a financial theory which suggests that, after an extreme price move, asset prices tend to return back to normal or average levels. Prices routinely oscillate around the mean or average price but tend to return to that same average price over and over. Swing trading strategies making use of a multi-day time frame could do well to utilize Moving Averages or Bollinger Bands.

  1. Calculating mean reversion demands a meticulous and analytical approach, using statistical measures to pinpoint times when prices are significantly deviated from their expected average or mean.
  2. In other words, rallies should be met with resistance somewhere into the mean reversion of the channel.
  3. Based on our backtesting result, on average your trades should reach the second target within 1-3 days.

There are a variety of indicators that calculate in some form or other extreme and unusual price movements. Mean reversion happens because the prices have a tendency to overshoot and undershoot their intrinsic value. These “price anomalies” happens because the impact of new information that hits the market takes time to be digested by the market.

Mean reversion forex trading strategy

The greater the deviation from their mean, the higher probability that the next movement of asset prices will be closer to the mean. In other words, an extreme event that would increase or decrease the momentum of a stock hire freelance developers online would likely be followed by a less extreme event that would cause far less fluctuation. The profit target (the average) is constantly moving, so traders may opt to update it with the completion of every price bar.

Best 5 Indicators for the Reversion to the Mean Trading Strategy

Consider a scenario where a trader meticulously studies various stocks, aiming to find those that display mean reversion opportunities. The trader spots Alphabet (GOOG), exhibiting stable price movements historically but currently showing substantial deviation from its historical mean price. Calculating mean reversion demands a meticulous and analytical approach, using statistical measures to pinpoint times when prices are significantly deviated from their expected average or mean.

Intraday mean reversion trading strategy

The idea is that in the long-term prices will return back to their previous average prices and normal pattern. Mean reversion in trading is a concept that refers to the assumption that asset prices and historical returns eventually will return to the long-term mean. This concept is rooted in the statistical phenomenon known as regression toward the mean. Traders who use this strategy typically look for opportunities to buy or sell assets when prices deviate significantly from their historical mean in anticipation of their eventual return to it.

Day trading and mean reversion

This principle has given rise to various trading techniques and models. Traders utilize concepts such as moving averages and oscillating indicators to identify instances where asset prices deviate from their historical averages. By recognizing these deviations, traders aim to anticipate potential reversals or corrections in prices, allowing them to strategically enter or exit positions in the market. The mean reversion theory in finance states that asset prices tend to return to their long-term averages after notable deviations.

On the chart below, we have dragged West Texas Crude Oil on to the existing Brent Crude Oil chart to compare the two types of oil and look for potential divergence and a possible reversion to the mean trade. A regression line shows a single line that best fits a selected price series. The Raff (regression) tool on our trading platform can be used to plot this line for traders. Traders can select the tool, then select the first point in time and connect the tool to another point in time. If there is an uptrend, the price tends to move up from the average and then fall back to it.

The risks of loss from investing in CFDs can be substantial and the value of your investments may fluctuate. 70% of retail client accounts lose money when trading CFDs, with this investment provider. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.

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